af·ter·math/ˈaftərˌmaTH/nounThe consequences or aftereffects of a significant unpleasant event.As we begin to lighten restrictions and return to some semblance of normalcy, it is evident that this virus will reshape our society. Plagues drive change, they always do. However, we all have a responsibility to drive that change in the appropriate direction. In Origin, I place much of the blame for the pandemic squarely on China. The world’s response to the pandemic is another matter entirely. The pandemic has highlighted major vulnerabilities of western society. Particularly in the United States, it has revealed how ill prepared we are for such an event at all levels. Shortly after Covid-19 reached the US, however, I began to see it as a blessing in disguise. I say this not to diminish the suffering brought forth from this virus, but had the virus been any deadlier, the societal and economic impact would have been unimaginable. We are lucky.
As our society begins to loosen restrictions and reopen, the cost of the pandemic will become apparent. Lives and careers will change for the foreseeable future. However, opportunity will also present itself. In a free market country, there is nothing that capital hates more than risk. I would expect companies that have depended on China for manufacturing to begin diversifying their own supply chains. There will also be a renewed push for American manufacturing. While there are certainly many products worth outsourcing, vital medications, PPE, and other personal care items should be manufactured in the United States. Moving away from Chinese manufacturing will present numerous diplomatic and economic opportunities. We should look to improve relations with India, Vietnam, Mongolia, and Bangladesh. We should increase trade with our friends in Japan and South Korea. Not only will this help to contain China, it will open markets that have largely been ignored.
The shutdown has also changed how we interact with each other. We have developed new and transformative uses for tele-communications, which I’m sure are here to stay. Video consultations with healthcare professionals will likely become standard practice. Homeschooling and online learning will become widespread. People have also learned that they don’t have to be in the office to get work done. Person to person interactions will become less frequent. While I’m sure many of these changes will benefit us in some way, beware of the catch 22. As much as people have been desperate to get outside and connect with others during the shutdown, we have been very quick to accept this digital encroachment on our lives. The more we look to our phones and computers to facilitate our lives, the more information is out there for the taking. And, information is more valuable than you realize.
I believe that over the next century, economic leadership will prove to be more valuable than military strength. In fact, it is because of American military dominance that economic sustainability and foreign policy will ultimately decide who comes out ahead. Right now, there isn’t a single sovereign state that desires a direct military conflict with the United States. Adversarial nations like China and Russia understand that they cannot beat us in a short term conflict. So, they’re developing long term strategies to remove us from the game. They have developed irregular strategic doctrines to undermine and sabotage American interests. Economic warfare, information warfare, and digital warfare. While this isn’t necessarily new information, China continues to win on these fronts. Why? Because they understand the value of information.
Unlike the Soviet Union, China understands their need to prioritize their economy before politics. Information collected en masse by a sovereign state ultimately influences economic strategy and foreign policy. While the United States, with a fractured strategy, collects, analyzes, and reacts to information, China has a unified approach to proactively securing and using collected information. Consider the effect of adversarial psychological influence. An adversarial nation state will use information to sow conflict within a targeted nation. The control and use of information can easily influence sympathizers and create insider threats. We’ve seen this strategy used primitively by Islamist extremists to recruit and establish sleeper cells. And, as the focus now shifts to the development of quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and space capability, we must have a unified front to ensure American dominance beyond it’s military might.
There are questions we must ask and find the answers to. Why is it economically viable for a US based company to seek and invest in an adversarial nation state? Why is the United States no longer a place where businesses believe they can thrive? Why is the smart play investing money oversees and not in the United States? What political policies are in place that encourage the exportation of American innovation and ingenuity? Outside of technological advancement, I don’t see any social, cultural, or civic development in this country. Although, perhaps we should be proud that we have seemingly perfected how to riot.
It is my recommendation, that as the Chinese dream advances, the American Dream must be restored and revitalized. It would be a damn shame if we let a communist nation out-capitalize us.
“When things break down, that which has been ignored rushes in.”
- Jordan Peterson